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River level forecasts

Hikuwai, Waiapu, Te Arai, Waipaoa, Waimata and Taruheru Rivers

This information is provided by Gisborne District Council to support flood warnings across the Tairāwhiti region. To receive automated text messages when rivers reach alert levels, subscribe to river alerts

Important: Forecast river levels are modelled estimates and may differ from official Civil Defence warnings. If you feel in danger, do not wait for an official warning to act. If rising river levels or flooding are forecast, prepare early. Read more about forecast accuracy and limitations.

River levels and forecasts

About this information

Predicted river level information is generated by computer models and may differ from official notifications issued by Civil Defence. In any situation where there is a discrepancy, official Civil Defence notifications take precedence.

Rainfall forecasts are provided by Metservice using selected "Model of the Day" data.  Tangi Matatū (FEWS) uses this information to estimate river levels up to 3 days in advance. Catchment average rainfall is also displayed.

The model uses the URBS hydrological modelling approach, a distributed, non-linear rainfall–runoff routing model.

At times, the graph may show differences between observed and forecast river levels. This is normal and reflects the difference between measured data and modelled estimates.

  • Observed (past) rainfall – catchment average rainfall calculated using Council rain gauges.
  • Forecast (future) rainfall – catchment average rainfall from the MetService 'Model of the Day' forecast.
  • Observed (past) water level – measured directly by a sensor at the flood warning site.
  • Forecast (future) water level – a modelled estimate from the flood forecasting model.

Some difference between observed and forecast water levels is expected, especially at lower levels. The model is calibrated and tested against large flood events.
All forecasts carry some uncertainty due to rainfall prediction error, model calibration, model error and other factors.

All times are reported in NZDT (New Zealand Daylight Time) and automatically adjust for daylight savings.

Data refresh rates

  • River and rainfall observations: 4 time per hour
  • Rainfall forecasts and river level model updates: every 12-24 hours, approximately 9am and 9pm.

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